The Latest Winter Outlook for Chicago Calls for a ‘La Niña’

After looking back at the worst winters in Chicago history, I decided to look forward to the upcoming winter season to see what potentially lies ahead. Following an "arctic front" that's slated to impact Iowa, Illinois, and Wisconsin around Halloween, things could get snowy and messy, particular for Illinois and the Chicago area.

This news comes from NBC 5 Chicago as well as the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)'s latest winter outlook for the 2024-25 season calls for a "La Niña winter," essentially meaning conditions could be far wetter than we've seen in years past.

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Chicago's 2023-24 winter season was, by definition, an "El Niño winter," underscored by warmer-than-average temperatures. Kevin Jeanes of NBC 5 Chicago opined that a wet winter would be considerably beneficial for the dry terrain that has plagued the Midwest for much of the later summer and fall season.

According to the National Weather Service (NWS), 18.5 inches of snow were recorded in Chicago during the 2023-24 winter season. That was almost a foot below normal.

It's difficult to assess how cold the upcoming winter season will be. We were more or less spoiled last year with an unseasonably warm winter. As of this writing, the NOAA predicts "equal chances" of temps being above or below average. Jeanes provided more context, saying:

If temperatures are closer to average, its going to feel colder than what we had last year [....] Not sure it's going to be a colder winter. There are equal chances it may be above average, or may be below average. - Kevin Jeanes, per NBC 5 Chicago

As far as a La Niña winter is concerned, this stems from the NOAA's experimental model known as the "Probabilistic Winter Storm Severity Index" as well as research from the University of Illinois. A La Niña winter is characterized by "a warmer and wetter winter than average," with more snow and winter storms during the season. It also generally leads to a cooler spring.

A La Niña is also favored to emerge between September and November, lasting through the winter months. While it's been anything but wet in the Tri-States these past few months, November will be a telling month when it comes to setting the stage for a potential wet and snowy winter.

Learn more about the outlook for the 2024-25 Chicago winter season on NBC 5 Chicago's website.

LOOK BACK AT THE WORST WINTERS IN CHICAGO HISTORY HERE.